It was arguably the toughest late-innings call that Scott Servais has had to make in this up-and-down season, and it ultimately put the Mariners on the wrong end of a 4-2 loss to the Angels in the matinee of Saturday’s doubleheader at T-Mobile Park. And the moment seemingly took the wind out of Seattle’s sails in the nightcap, which the Mariners dropped, 3-0.
To pitch or not pitch to Mike Trout? That is the question Seattle’s manager faced in the 10th inning in the first game, opting to roll the dice against arguably the game’s best hitter — and the one who has particularly tormented the Mariners for the past decade.
Moments later, Mariners reliever Diego Castillo surrendered a two-run, go-ahead homer to the three-time MVP that sealed Seattle’s fate.
Here’s a breakdown of what went into Servais’ choice:
The decisionThe righty Castillo had been the Mariners’ linchpin for the past month, scoreless since May 20 while holding hitters 1-for-33 since that outing. Trout, who now has 32 homers at T-Mobile Park after homering in the doubleheader finale, 13 more than any visiting player in the venue’s history, had struck out three times earlier in the game.
In the on-deck circle sat lefty-hitting Shohei Ohtani, who is equally, if not more, of a power threat than Trout. Ohtani went on to barrel a 114.4 mph fly out short of the warning track after the dust settled to end the top of the 10th.
“I went with our hottest pitcher, our best pitcher, so to speak, and it’s Mike Trout,” Servais said. “He’s certainly got us a bunch in the past. It’s a tough decision. Last year’s MVP is in the on-deck circle, so that weighs into the decision as well.”
After a career-worst slump in early June, Trout is heating back up, entering Saturday 10-for-25 with five homers in his previous eight games, including two in the series opener. Did he envision the Mariners pitching around him?
“You can’t go up there thinking about that,” Trout said. “I’m thinking about hitting the whole time. If they tell me to go to first base, I go to first base. But you can’t have that kind of mentality in your head because then you’re up there second-guessing.”
The numbersIf Servais walked Trout, there would be runners on the corners for Ohtani, who has a .904 OPS against righties compared to .681 against lefties — and still one out needed. The Mariners could’ve then turned to lefty reliever Ryan Borucki or Roenis Elías, low-leverage arms, but that would’ve made little to no sense. Again, Castillo has been pitching as well as any reliever in the game.
“They had a lefty up in the ‘pen, but it’s really pick your poison right there,” Angels manager Phil Nevin said. “Shohei had just missed a couple of balls that would’ve been out in other places. He took some really good swings. So it’s hard to say. It really wasn’t that bad a pitch, either. He’s just Mike Trout.”
There’s some history here, too. Castillo had faced Trout once before, on June 16, 2019 — nearly three years to the day — when he was still with the Rays. The result was the exact same, as Trout pummeled a pitch at the bottom of the strike zone for a two-run homer at Tropicana Field. Ohtani is a career 1-for-2 against Castillo, with a strikeout in his rookie year in 2018 and a single in 2019.
“Where you want to go there from the numbers standpoint, as crazy as it sounds, you like the right-hander against Trout vs. the right-hander against Ohtani,” Servais said. “So those are the decisions you have to make.”
There’s also the option to walk both Trout and Ohtani, but that would’ve loaded the bases for lefty-hitting Jared Walsh, whose splits are nearly identical to Ohtani’s. Walsh has a .485 slugging percentage and nine homers against righties this year.
Also, with the bases loaded, there’s still the risk of a wild pitch or passed ball or the risk of a runaway inning. The Mariners’ bats, after all, still had the bottom of the 10th to work with. Had Servais opted to face either Ohtani or Walsh and they drove in the decisive run, it’s likely that he would’ve been criticized regardless.
“I get paid to make those decisions,” Servais said. “I need to be right more than I’m wrong. Today, you’ve got to give him credit. He hit the ball out of the ballpark.”
The executionIn a 1-1 count, Castillo landed a 94.9 mph fastball that began middle then sunk to the lower outer half, which is basically Trout’s bread basket. He entered the day with 37 homers on fastballs that low since Statcast began tracking, the eighth most most in baseball.
As Baseball Savant shows, Trout feasts on pitches in the location where Castillo’s landed.
Castillo opted for his sinker on each of the three pitches to Trout instead of his slider at least once. That pitch has been the key to his resurgence but also a culprit for big-time homers when he lacks the feel for it.
The decision and execution left a sour taste in Seattle’s mouth, especially having to turn around for the nightcap. Trout has now homered 51 times in 171 games against the Mariners. Since the start of 2011, his first season, that’s more homers by any player against any opponent in baseball.
“He’s the best hitter in the game,” Servais said. “And he hit it.”
The follow-upThe Mariners’ ongoing offensive limitations continued in the finale, as Seattle was blanked for the ninth time this season — tied for second-most in the Majors — and the third time on this homestand. Trout again homered, a solo shot in the third, but the Mariners failed to cash in when they had the bases loaded with one out in the first, when Dylan Moore and Justin Upton struck out to halt the rally.
