With six weeks left in the MLB regular season, it’s tough to find much drama in the race for the Most Valuable Player in either league. And the odds reflect that, as the bookmakers clearly believe that New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani have put their leagues’ respective races to bed.
And it’s hard to disagree. Unlike in past years, where one might have quibbled with Judge’s strikeout totals or Ohtani playing on a terrible Angels team, there really isn’t a good argument against either player. Judge does still strike out a lot, but he also leads the American League in OBP and OPS. Ohtani plays for a good Dodgers team this year, and he’s been key to keeping them in first place in the NL West.
So is there anything left to debate here? Honestly, probably not. It would take a major surprise for either to lose out on the MVP award. Here’s a look at each situation:
Aaron Judge, AL MVP: -1400 at BetMGM
You could make a very strong case that, without Judge, the Yankees aren’t in the playoff race. It’s hard to get more valuable than that, and it’s not hyperbole. Earlier in the season, the Yankees hung together strictly by the force of Judge’s will. He had a slow start in April, but he was the biggest reason New York got through May with Baltimore still in its sights.
He’s remained hot ever since. The biggest suspense left for him is whether he can win the Triple Crown. As long as he doesn’t go cold, he should have both home runs and RBIs locked up, leaving batting average as the only real question. And if Bobby Witt Jr. wasn’t hitting .350, Judge’s .331 would likely be good enough to do the job.
If there is a way for Judge to lose out, it would consist of the Yankees falling out of the postseason race and Judge going cold in the process. And realistically, the only one who could catch up to Judge is Witt Jr. Gunnar Henderson hasn’t done enough in the second half of the season, and nobody else really comes close to the impact those teams have had on their respective squads. Even if Judge gets hurt tomorrow, it’s hard to see Witt Jr. making up the ground and getting voters to back him.
It’s strange to say the value isn’t there in someone having the season Witt Jr. is, but Judge has been that good. There’s no reason to waste a unit on anyone else.
Shohei Ohtani, NL MVP: -3000 at BetMGM
Is there anything that Ohtani doesn’t do well on the field? He hits for power, he hits for average, he steals bases and he comes around to score. Ohtani has been so dominant at the plate that it hasn’t even mattered that he hasn’t pitched or taken the field this season. With the universal DH, he doesn’t have to, and he’s as valuable as ever.
If anything, he’s more valuable this year because he is playing in games that actually matter. Ohtani’s biggest criticism of his career has been the one most out of his hands: the fact that he’s never played any September games that mattered. That was because the Angels have been the most wasteful organization in baseball, first blowing the career of Mike Trout and then doing the same with Ohtani.
Moving up Interstate 5 put Ohtani on a team that plays winning baseball, and he’s continued to batter opponents. That said, he really shouldn’t be as massive of a favorite as he is, and if the award went by stats and not voters, he wouldn’t be. Marcell Ozuna can match Ohtani’s numbers outside of steals, and the Braves are playing meaningful baseball. Ditto for Ketel Marte of Arizona.
But the steals give Ohtani the leg up, and voters remain electrified by what he brings to the table. If it wasn’t a subjective award, I’d throw a roulette chip on Ozuna, as +2200 would represent excellent value for the season he’s had. But I can’t see the voters ignoring Ohtani unless he gets injured. So like with Judge, there’s little point to taking the longshot play.
