Rory McIlroy will play the final two DP World Tour playoff events with a substantial lead in the season-long points standings as he tries to match Seve Ballestoeros and win the title fora sixth time.Andrew Redington

This week the DP World Tour arrives in the largest of the United Arab Emirates for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, the first of two season-ending playoff events. Sadly, however, what should be a big deal on what used to be the European Tour is lacking in a couple of important respects.

The non-attendance of six eligible players—Billy Horschel, Ludvig Aberg, Jon Rahm, Matthieu Pavon, Zander Lombard and Aaron Rai—means the 70-strong field contains those ranked 71-76 on the Race to Dubai. But perhaps the biggest downside to the $9 million event is an almost total absence of suspense when it comes to the destination of the Harry Vardon Trophy that will go to the man who eventually tops the season-long rankings.

As things stand, Rory McIlroy has amassed 4,532.33 points in the 10 DP World Tour events in which he has participated this season. As a mark of just how well the Northern Irishman has played in pursuit of what will surely be his sixth Race to Dubai rankings victory, his nearest challenger this time round is Thriston Lawrence. The burly South African has 2,959.04 points from 24 starts. In third place is Denmark’s Rasmus Hojgaard, who has 2,612.05 points from his 21 starts.

In other words, McIlroy, who will equal the record of the late Seve Ballesteros should he pick up his sixth title and trail only Colin Montgomerie’s eight Race to Dubai titles on the all-time list, has outperformed his fellow competitors by an almost ridiculous margin. While the four-time major champion has won only once—at the Dubai Desert Classic in January—on the DP World Tour in 2024, he has four second-place finishes (the U.S. Open finish counts in the total), as well as owning two other top-five showings. Only twice, at the Masters and the recent Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, has he finished outside the top 20. And only once, at the Open Championship, has the 35-year-old missed the cut. Overall, his level of performance has been outstanding.

All of which only adds to the notion that this thing is all but over. Still, undaunted, the DP World Tour website this week details a series of possible scenarios whereby McIlroy’s 1,572.39-point lead might just disappear. Statistically, as many as 36 players still have a chance of ending the season as European No. 1. Perhaps the only certainty, however, is that Lawrence and Hojgaard must stay within 2,000 points (which will go to the winner of next week’s DP World Tour Championship) of the leader going into the final tournament.

Elsewhere, the website details a series of almost comical possibilities. For example, fifth-placed Tommy Fleetwood needs to earn at least 541.93 points this week to stay in what might loosely be called contention. Sixth-placed Matteo Manassero requires at least 568.91 points. And the man in seventh spot, Niklas Norgaard, has to earn a minimum of 580.91. All those from 15th-placed Romain Langasque down to Sam Bairstow in 37th have to win this week on the 7,425-yard Yas Links course to keep their almost invisible hopes alive.

Here’s the clincher though. All of those requirements are dependent on one more crucial result: McIlroy finishing last this week. Chances are, that ain’t going to happen.