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The swing nations that could rock the World Rugby Council – and make or break Aussie’s bid to become chair

It’s barely made a drop in the ocean in recent days given the Wallabies’ stunning upset win over England – but over the next 24 hours, one of the most important battles affecting Australian rugby will be played in Dublin.

Indeed, roughly 72 hours before the Wallabies take the field in Cardiff, across the Irish Sea, former Australian back-rower Brett Robinson will attempt to become the game’s leading political figure as he seeks to replace outgoing World Rugby chairman Sir Bill Beaumont.

In a high-stakes political contest that will shape the global game, Robinson requires 27 votes to emerge as the World Rugby chairman in what shapes as another intriguing power struggle.

His challengers are Italian Andrea Rinaldo and Frenchman Abdel Benazzi, who was a giant for the Les Bleus during the 1990s and scored against the Wallabies in their 1999 World Cup final defeat at Millenium Stadium.

Rinaldo is expected to bow out of running early, but Benazzi, who is spruiking himself as the necessary change agent to move rugby away from its “protectionist, Anglo and conservative” roots, is set to run Robinson until the end of the race.

Robinson, who joined The Roar Rugby podcast in September, believes he is the right person to steer the game through some serious headwinds, saying the game must get “serious” and embrace the touted Nations Championship, which will likely pump money into the game.

“One of the great challenges for us is this tension around the economics of the game and the global macroeconomics of revenue versus cost,” Robinson told The Roar Rugby Podcast.

“We have wage inflation pressures not being supported by revenue that we can create.

“There are things we can do around revenue and we can talk about the Nation’s Championship, which I think is a wonderful thing that the game can’t walk away from again after it walked away from it in the last cycle.

“We have to embrace that opportunity to really maximise the revenue opportunity for the game for Tier 1 nations, but also for Tier 2 nations. There’s 24 teams that are mixed up in this project that’s mission critical.”

The Australian also believes he’s well-equipped to deal with some of the game’s challenges given it’s something the game Down Under has been dealing with over the past two decades.

Indeed, the former flanker has advocated for law changes to ensure the game is as attractive as possible like 20-minute red cards and the 50-22 – a spinoff from rugby league’s 40-20 kick.

Benazzi has spoken about the need to expand the game beyond the traditional blocks of the Six Nations and Australia and New Zealand.

It’s a factor that will likely please emerging nations like Georgia, who have long been knocking on the Six Nations door.

He has said he intends on addressing the “unfair” World Rugby voting system, which gives Six Nations and Rugby Championship nations 30 of the 52 member votes.

The outcome at the World Rugby Council is set to come down to three swing voters: Ireland, Italy and Japan.

It’s understood Ireland, who aren’t wedded to their British neighbours, is seriously considering voting for Rinaldo.

Should the Italian be knocked out early, it’s a vote Robinson will be desperate to obtain.

Japan’s vote is also crucial, with the Asian country barely embraced by its Pacific neighbours in the south.

Although partnerships have been set up between Australian and New Zealand franchises, the reluctance to welcome Japanese involvement into their trans-Tasman domestic and international competitions means the relationships are not as strong as they could have been.

Neither can Robinson rely on the South African or Argentinian vote either, with the SANZAAR nations hardly thrilled by how they were dealt with at the onset of Covid-19.

The other factor at play is the backroom deals that have been done to win favour.

After Scot John Jeffrey lost the support of his home union, South Africa rugby president Mark Alexander’s hope of becoming World Rugby vice-chairman likely blew up in smoke.

Adding to Argentina’s frustration is that at the last World Rugby Council Los Pumas great Agustin Pichot lost out to Beaumont in his bid to usurp the former English lock.

Robinson, meanwhile, has also been close to New Zealand Rugby chief-executive Mark Robinson. But the World Rugby politicking has only strengthened those ties. Could a swanky new role be on offer once Robinson leaves the NZR?

Along with John Eales, Pichot is running for a seat on the World Rugby executive board, which will also be voted in on Friday.

Rugby Australia will be desperately hoping Robinson gets up. If he does, he’ll become the first Australian to hold the role and the first from outside the Six Nations block.

Although the former Brumbies skipper won’t simply save the game Down Under, his appointment is seen as something that could help after a difficult decade on and off the field.

With three showpiece events on the horizon, as well as the Brisbane Olympics in 2032, RA believes it’ll help to have someone inside the tent they can look in the eye and know they’ll tell the truth and advocate for them.

In a cut-throat secret ballot held in a Dublin hotel, Robinson will be hopeful he knows his friends from his enemies.

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